Another guest post from Doug Helferich...
A recent trend in Major League Baseball has changed the face of free agency. It has led to the current distribution of power, and will continue to shape the results of baseball for at least the next few years. First, let me define what I mean by the term ace. I refer to a pitcher in his prime, your number 1 pitcher that you would unconditionally choose to pitch in the big game. So, this doesn't include the free-agent deals of Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, or Jason Schmidt. This guy would be the (pitching) face of your franchise for years to come upon his arrival to your franchise.
Instead of letting their aces go to free agency, teams are resigning them, sometimes for a few years, sometimes to rather long-term deals. For example, Carlos Zambrano (2007), Roy Oswalt (2006), Ben Sheets (2005), Kevin Brown (1998), Randy Johnson (2003, 2005, 2007), Jake Peavy (2007), Josh Beckett (2006), Brandon Webb (2006), and Johan Santana (2008) [Santana was traded and then signed a new contract with his new team.] all signed extensions instead of ending up as free agents (one exception here is Barry Zito; however, the Athletics certainly tried their hardest to trade him, and he most certainly would have been resigned upon landing with a new team). This has had a number of effects.
Most importantly, it has inflated the price of free agent pitching to astronomical levels. Some truly horrible contracts have been inked in the past few years, including Russ Ortiz (Orioles) Carl Pavano (Yankees), Mike Hampton (Rockies), and Carlos Silva (Mariners). Some others have been merely been priced above their actual value: A.J. Burnett (Blue Jays), Ted Lilly (Cubs), Jason Marquis (Cubs), and Gil Meche (Royals). Teams have to pay the big bucks to get even mediocre pitchers, making these deals much riskier. Even if a team receives the expected production out of a pitcher, they are still more restricted in their financial matters. They are not maximizing the value of their money.
Trades are now the way to acquire a game-changing pitcher. This last year alone has seen Santana, Rich Harden, Dan Haren, and CC Sabathia change teams (and leagues). The Athletics are constant sellers, trading away Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Harden, and Haren over the last several years. The Marlins have seen the departure of Brad Penny and Beckett. The Marlins have won two championships in the last decade, but traded away or did not resign key players in both instances. However, they used prospects acquired in those trades to bolster their farm system. The Athletics don't have the money to keep their dominating pitchers, and have to trade them away to at least bring more than a compensatory draft pick back to the team. However, they do continue to churn out ace-quality pitchers. Depending on the talent evaluation abilities of the teams involved in a trade, things can work out well for either side. Some aces succeed with their new teams, and some don't live up to expectations. Prospects are also hit or miss, but some teams definitely have more success than others.
Which leads me to how this applies to the Mets. You can't buy aces anymore; they have their contracts extended before they even get to smell the salt of the proverbial free agent waters. The pitchers that do take the dip are generally not worth the market price for one reason or another, and likely wouldn't make a significant enough impact anyway. We acquired our difference maker in Santana, but looking towards the future, it is crucial that we hoard our young pitching talent. Quality arms can no longer simply be purchased; it is time we take heed of this trend and react accordingly. My plan to react to this situation is this: small market team talent evaluation while utilizing our large market budget.
Specifically:
1. Improve system-wide talent evaluation abilities. Use the organization's resources to lure away better scouts and front office executives to locate, draft, sign, and trade for the best prospects available.
2. Keep the pitchers we have. Give potential aces a little longer than in past years. Mike Pelfrey is finally starting to blossom, and obviously we didn't wait long enough (or even give a fair chance to) Scott Kazmir. Use our resources to retain players, not obtain them (ostensibly through free agency).
Note: This is a medium to long term plan, really a change in our organizational philosophy. This will not help us win tomorrow; do not think that it will. It would probably mean less trades at the deadline and offseason. However, I do think that it would pay long term dividends. Just imagine if the Athletics got to keep their good pitchers for more than one or two good seasons, or if the Marlins didn't have to resort to fire sales as their response to winning a championship.
