The Verducci Effect on Mike Pelfrey

A theory I've been pointing to all off season comes from SI writer, and fellow New Jerseyite, Tom Verducci. He believes that if a young pitcher, usually under the age of 25, has his inning pitched increase by more then 30, he is at risk for an injury the next season.

Mike Pelfrey fits that category.

Verducci met with Pelfrey down at spring training, and much of his latest article focuses on Pelfrey and a handful of other young pitchers he has "red flagged" for injuries in 2009. Of the 10 pitchers Verducci picked, Pelfrey had the seventh largest jump in innings with 48.

How much should those guys be worried? Over the previous three years I red-flagged a total of 24 young pitchers at the start of those seasons. Of those 24 at-risk pitchers, 16 were hurt in that same season. Only one of the 24 pitchers managed to stay healthy and lower his ERA.Not the greatest news in the world for Mets fans or Pelfrey.

Hopefully the Mets have enough arms in their system that a significant injury to Pelfrey, who pitches tonight in Cincinnati, can be overcome.