Are the Mets just an average team heading into 2009?

Take a step back from all the hype. Forget about the rumors and possibilities. Looking at the team, right now, are the 2009 New York Mets just going to be an average team?

Let's go through the team, position by position, and figure out if the Mets can compete in the NL East.

Starting Pitching

Johan Santana is the anchor. He's one of the top 3 pitchers in the game, and will go out and perform every time he is called upon. He's pretty darn good, and we all know it. He'll be just fine, even if he is coming off meniscus surgery.

Mike Pelfrey had a great season, finally blooming into the pitcher Mets fans hoped he would be. He topped 200 innings pitched in '08, which was a jump of almost 130 innings. As I've brought up time and time again, Tom Verducci of SI.com has shown that young pitchers who make such a large jump from season to season, generally struggle the next year. Knowing that past history doesn't always show future performance, this still leaves me with a lot of doubt for Pelfrey's 2009 campaign.

John Maine, coming off an injury-shortened season and still recovering from surgery, is another question mark in the Mets rotation. If he can come out and pitch like 2007, everything will be fine, but that's a big "if." Mets fans should expect a season like last years, with Maine struggling with high pitch counts and decreased velocity. Maybe Dan Warthen can get Maine to go for the throat when he's ahead on batters, instead of dancing around the plate and running up to a full count pretty much every time. Maine could have a bounce back year, but I highly doubt it.

Next, I guess I'll talk about Tim Redding. The Mets, hopefully, are not done constructing their roster, but as of now Redding likely projects as the #4 starter. That's just not a good sign to begin with. A 34-51 pitcher, with a 4.92 ERA and 1.501 WHIP in his career, Redding should be a 5th starter.

Behind him, the Mets have rookie Jon Niese. He started three games in 2008, going 1-1 with a 7.07 ERA. His lone win was in an absolute masterpiece, allowing six hits over eight innings against the Atlanta Braves on Sept. 13. But with only 14 innings under his belt, he is unproven at the major league level.

Hate to say it, but the Mets have one solid starter and four giant question marks. Even if the Mets manage to sign Oliver Perez or Ben Sheets, neither of them are spectacular signings, with Perez struggling with inconsistency and Sheets battling the injury bug. The Mets rotation is very weak.

Closer

Can't get much better than Francisco Rodriguez. He was an excellent signing -- due to his talent and the money the Mets will be paying him. Unfortunately, the only way he's worthwhile is if the team hands him a lead. He could have an excellent season, especially in the "weaker" NL. Great player who should shine if given the chance.

Set-up Man

J.J. Putz is a proven major league closer. With over 100 saves under his belt, he should make a great closer. I say "should" because we've all seen how most closers do in a non-save situation. The same mentality just isn't there and the closers often fail to shut the door. Hopefully (there's that word again), Putz can just pretend he's saving games and bridge the gap to Rodriguez in the 9th.

Rest of the Bullpen

Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green, Brian Stokes and Carlos Muniz make up the bullpen. In order: not confident, specialist, OK, could be good, stinks. That's how I see them. Not very confident in this bullpen at all.

Catcher

I have no problem with Brian Schneider. Some pitchers may prefer Ramon Castro, and I'd like to see him get more time if healthy. Between the two, I think the Mets have some very well called games and decent production at the plate.

First Base

The second-half of 2008 for Carlos Delgado was in a word: Magical. It made most fans forget about his horrendous end of 2007 and beginning of '08. Will he be able to recreate June of '08 on? Probably not. Will he stink it up like the first half of the year? More likely. I expect something in between. Nothing earth-shattering, but nothing miserable. I'd like to see Daniel Murphy get groomed for this position, if he has the glove to stick there.

Second Base

Luis Castillo is pretty bad. With the slap hitting, the gimpy running and the injuries (not to mention the $18 million he's owed), he's a major hindrance to the team. I predict Alex Cora will start 40 games at second this season. Hopefully Murphy has improved his fielding and can play there.

Shortstop

Jose Reyes is the most exciting player in the game. Expect that to continue for years to come. Not worried about this position at all.

Third Base

David Wright will be fine. MVP in 2009?

Left Field

Platooning worries me. With Fernando Tatis and Murphy slated to split time in left, I'm not too confident in LF. Tatis is not going to have the same season again. That was a fluke. He'll be OK, but nothing like '08. Murphy might be on the brink of becoming the Mets young spark. The team needs to find a place for him, but wherever he plays, I hope he hits.

Center Field

Carlos Beltran is one of the most underrated players in the game. No, he won't hit for average, but he's one of the top 5 center fielders in the game. Mets fans should feel lucky to have him.

Right Field

Oh, concussions. Ryan Church, when healthy (beginning of the year) was excellent. Running down balls I didn't think he'd get to, hitting much better than expected and all around looking like a steal. Then the concussion in Atlanta happened and he wasn't the same player again. If he can play like he did pre-concussion, the Mets will be set in right. If not, there will be trouble.

Bench

Jeremy Reed, Marlon Anderson, Cora and Tatis or Murphy (depending on who is in LF) make up the Mets bench. I don't see Angel Pagan or Nick Evans making the team, but those two guys will be perfect to have waiting in the wings. Reed is the new Endy Chavez, as he is capable of playing any OF position. Anderson will likely see time at first base and will resume his pinch hitting duties. Cora will serve as the backup middle infielder. Tatis will likely play some first base and third base, along with his LF duties. Murphy might see time at second, depending on his spring training, but will likely see the majority of games in LF.

Overall

The Mets weakness is their pitching. The rotation simply is not that strong and the Mets are going to suffer. They focused on the end of games, but that will be a moot point if the team isn't getting a lead to the set-up man and closer.

I'm not overly impressed by the Mets right now. I think they're over-projecting Maine and Pelfrey in 2009. Redding and Niese at the back-end of the rotation is sickening. The offense shouldn't be a problem, with the core players carrying most of the weight. The rest should do their part, but not blow down the doors.

In conclusion, the Mets could finish anywhere from fourth to first (the Nationals are very bad) in the NL East. A run at first place would take a few mini-miracles and going relatively injury free through the season. It will be an uphill climb, no doubt.

Sign Jon Garland, please

I present you with the best fact I've found on why the Mets should sign Jon Garland. He may not be a spectacular pitcher, but this Stat of the Day shows why he's so durable and enticing.

Stat of the Day:

Today, I was wondering, from 2002 through 2008, how many big league pitchers younger than age 29 have posted four or more seasons where they made at least 32 starts, threw at least 190 innings, and won at least 10 games?

Here is the list.

Look who is at the top.

Six file for arbitration

Six players have filed for salary arbitration.

Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, Ryan Church, Jeremy Reed, John Maine and Angel Pagan all filed for arbitration. David Lennon has the players service time and 2008 salaries up.

Last off-season, Oliver Perez was the first Met player to make it to a hearing since David Cone in 1992. Five bucks says they'll have another hearing this year. Clearing six players before the deadline is going to be a tough task, especially with Omar Minaya's attention elsewhere.

No we can't!

Via MetsTweets on Twitter.
Amazing.

Get your tickets

Tickets are...on sale!

40- and 15-game packages are up and ready to go.
Anyone getting seats? Anyone have extras? (hint hint)

The State of the Mets -- 1/15/09

Here is the second edition of The State of the Mets.

I cover Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez and Alex Cora.

Enjoy.

(Ed. note: I'm slowly improving this. Soon, you won't have to stare at my ugly mug the whole time.)

Link: Beltran is ready

Another great article from Christian Red in the Daily News, this time focusing on Carlos Beltran. Click here to read the story.

Andy Pettitte rumors to start swirling

One month ago (to the day), I wrote this:

According to Jon Heyman, an unnamed team supposedly has a three-year, $36 million offer on the table for Pettitte.

Hopefully, that team is not the Mets.

I would take Pettitte on a one year contract worth $8 million, though he likely won't sign for that. How about a two year deal worth $14 million? It's a bit off from this suggested $12 million a year he's supposedly getting from Team Anonymous (which I suspect doesn't exist). Pettitte also supposedly turned down a one-year, $10 million offer from the Yankees.
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The Mets need at least one more starter, and it could be Pettitte.

Today, Wallace Matthews writes:

But for whatever reason, the Yankees - either scared off by his poor second half, emboldened by their relatively painless jettisoning of Bernie Williams a couple of years ago or warming up for their inevitable discarding of Jeter and Mariano Rivera a couple of years hence - have decided that unless Pettitte wants to work for the Yankee equivalent of clubhouse-boy wages, he no longer fits into their plans.
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It doesn't appear to me that any of those guys is a better fit for the Mets' rotation than Pettitte. Unlike Perez, you absolutely know what you're getting: 30 to 35 starts a year, 200-plus innings, a minimum 14 wins. If you make it to October, you have a starter guaranteed not to rattle under pressure, and almost always guaranteed to put you in a position to win.

I'd prefer others, but Pettitte could work for the Mets.

A letter to the New York Mets

Dear Mets,

I'm writing you on behalf of Mets fans everywhere. I am imploring you to keep Johan Santana out of the World Baseball Classic.

As it stands right now, Santana is the only pitcher I trust in the team's rotation. With Mike Pelfrey coming off a season in which he threw a ton more innings, John Maine recovering from surgery, Tim Redding not being all that great to begin with and Jon Niese being almost completely unproven, Santana is all we've got.

Not to mention that he's also coming off surgery from October.

You might hurt the mans feeling a bit, and maybe you should send a fruit basket to Hugo Chavez, but this is what's better for the team. Tell him he's just not ready to pitch. Tell him he looks like he's coming down with a cold. Tell him something, anything, to keep him from putting excess wear and tear on his arm.

Protect your $137 million investment -- JUST SAY NO.

Sincerely,
Andrew Vazzano
TheRopolitans.com

Johan Santana's Baseball-Reference page libeled

Baseball-Reference is an amazing site. I use it daily to check stats and numbers on any player that I want. Even if he only played one season in the minor leagues in 1980, B-R is pretty much guaranteed to have his stats.

On each players page, B-R allows fans or websites to "sponsor" the page. It helps them wrangle with server costs and whatnot.

Well Johan Santana's page has a bit of "internet graffiti" on it.
Ugh.