Johan Santana and the Mets are set to face off against Derek Lowe and the Braves tonight in what will likely be another pitching duel.
So far in 2009, Santana seems to be the one pitcher suffering from lack of run support. In his six starts, the Mets have scored 12 combined runs. In the game after a Santana start, the Mets have scored 38 combined runs.
Take a look at this chart that plots the runs scored before a Santana start, on the day Santana starts and the day after.
To put that even more in perspective, here’s a graph of runs scored for each starting pitcher. In only two (2!) games have the Mets scored less than four runs – the most they’ve ever scored in a Santana start – for another pitcher.
This is mostly due to the fact that of Santana’s six starts, he’s been matched up against the ace of the opposing team’s rotation (Aaron Harang on Opening Day and Josh Johnson twice). Two other times, he’s pitched opposite the No. 2 starter in the rotation.
With Santana facing off against Lowe tonight, the No. 1 pitcher in the Braves staff, it might be another low scoring night. Lowe is 1-2 with a 8.78 ERA in two starts and eight total appearances against the Mets.
Santana, on the other hand, is 0-3 in five career starts against the Braves. His ERA? 2.76. Lack of run support is a running theme, it seems.
Hopefully his fortunes will change tonight at Citi Field.