We've all seen what Aaron Heilman can do. He's had an up and down year, with a horrendous start, a miraculous June, and now what seems like another terrible rough patch.
This is the guy, right now, you would want to close games for the New York Mets if Billy Wagner has to go to the DL? In his last four appearances, Heilman has given up 7 earned runs in 6 1-3 innings. His ERA ballooned over .60 points.
Eddie Kunz was the closer for Binghamton for most of the year. If the Mets are willing to give Heilman a shot at saving games, Kunz should be given the same chance. Plus, opposing players haven't seen this guy pitch, they won't be ready for him. Most players have seen Heilman pitch, and probably have hit off of him.
Give Kunz a shot.
This should also serve as an impromptu poll. If you think Eddie Kunz should close, say so in the comments. If you think Aaron Heilman should, again, hit the comments.
8/5/08
Guest Blog: Where have all the aces gone?
Another guest post from Doug Helferich...
A recent trend in Major League Baseball has changed the face of free agency. It has led to the current distribution of power, and will continue to shape the results of baseball for at least the next few years. First, let me define what I mean by the term ace. I refer to a pitcher in his prime, your number 1 pitcher that you would unconditionally choose to pitch in the big game. So, this doesn't include the free-agent deals of Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, or Jason Schmidt. This guy would be the (pitching) face of your franchise for years to come upon his arrival to your franchise.
Instead of letting their aces go to free agency, teams are resigning them, sometimes for a few years, sometimes to rather long-term deals. For example, Carlos Zambrano (2007), Roy Oswalt (2006), Ben Sheets (2005), Kevin Brown (1998), Randy Johnson (2003, 2005, 2007), Jake Peavy (2007), Josh Beckett (2006), Brandon Webb (2006), and Johan Santana (2008) [Santana was traded and then signed a new contract with his new team.] all signed extensions instead of ending up as free agents (one exception here is Barry Zito; however, the Athletics certainly tried their hardest to trade him, and he most certainly would have been resigned upon landing with a new team). This has had a number of effects.
Most importantly, it has inflated the price of free agent pitching to astronomical levels. Some truly horrible contracts have been inked in the past few years, including Russ Ortiz (Orioles) Carl Pavano (Yankees), Mike Hampton (Rockies), and Carlos Silva (Mariners). Some others have been merely been priced above their actual value: A.J. Burnett (Blue Jays), Ted Lilly (Cubs), Jason Marquis (Cubs), and Gil Meche (Royals). Teams have to pay the big bucks to get even mediocre pitchers, making these deals much riskier. Even if a team receives the expected production out of a pitcher, they are still more restricted in their financial matters. They are not maximizing the value of their money.
Trades are now the way to acquire a game-changing pitcher. This last year alone has seen Santana, Rich Harden, Dan Haren, and CC Sabathia change teams (and leagues). The Athletics are constant sellers, trading away Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Harden, and Haren over the last several years. The Marlins have seen the departure of Brad Penny and Beckett. The Marlins have won two championships in the last decade, but traded away or did not resign key players in both instances. However, they used prospects acquired in those trades to bolster their farm system. The Athletics don't have the money to keep their dominating pitchers, and have to trade them away to at least bring more than a compensatory draft pick back to the team. However, they do continue to churn out ace-quality pitchers. Depending on the talent evaluation abilities of the teams involved in a trade, things can work out well for either side. Some aces succeed with their new teams, and some don't live up to expectations. Prospects are also hit or miss, but some teams definitely have more success than others.
Which leads me to how this applies to the Mets. You can't buy aces anymore; they have their contracts extended before they even get to smell the salt of the proverbial free agent waters. The pitchers that do take the dip are generally not worth the market price for one reason or another, and likely wouldn't make a significant enough impact anyway. We acquired our difference maker in Santana, but looking towards the future, it is crucial that we hoard our young pitching talent. Quality arms can no longer simply be purchased; it is time we take heed of this trend and react accordingly. My plan to react to this situation is this: small market team talent evaluation while utilizing our large market budget.
Specifically:
1. Improve system-wide talent evaluation abilities. Use the organization's resources to lure away better scouts and front office executives to locate, draft, sign, and trade for the best prospects available.
2. Keep the pitchers we have. Give potential aces a little longer than in past years. Mike Pelfrey is finally starting to blossom, and obviously we didn't wait long enough (or even give a fair chance to) Scott Kazmir. Use our resources to retain players, not obtain them (ostensibly through free agency).
Note: This is a medium to long term plan, really a change in our organizational philosophy. This will not help us win tomorrow; do not think that it will. It would probably mean less trades at the deadline and offseason. However, I do think that it would pay long term dividends. Just imagine if the Athletics got to keep their good pitchers for more than one or two good seasons, or if the Marlins didn't have to resort to fire sales as their response to winning a championship.
A recent trend in Major League Baseball has changed the face of free agency. It has led to the current distribution of power, and will continue to shape the results of baseball for at least the next few years. First, let me define what I mean by the term ace. I refer to a pitcher in his prime, your number 1 pitcher that you would unconditionally choose to pitch in the big game. So, this doesn't include the free-agent deals of Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, or Jason Schmidt. This guy would be the (pitching) face of your franchise for years to come upon his arrival to your franchise.
Instead of letting their aces go to free agency, teams are resigning them, sometimes for a few years, sometimes to rather long-term deals. For example, Carlos Zambrano (2007), Roy Oswalt (2006), Ben Sheets (2005), Kevin Brown (1998), Randy Johnson (2003, 2005, 2007), Jake Peavy (2007), Josh Beckett (2006), Brandon Webb (2006), and Johan Santana (2008) [Santana was traded and then signed a new contract with his new team.] all signed extensions instead of ending up as free agents (one exception here is Barry Zito; however, the Athletics certainly tried their hardest to trade him, and he most certainly would have been resigned upon landing with a new team). This has had a number of effects.
Most importantly, it has inflated the price of free agent pitching to astronomical levels. Some truly horrible contracts have been inked in the past few years, including Russ Ortiz (Orioles) Carl Pavano (Yankees), Mike Hampton (Rockies), and Carlos Silva (Mariners). Some others have been merely been priced above their actual value: A.J. Burnett (Blue Jays), Ted Lilly (Cubs), Jason Marquis (Cubs), and Gil Meche (Royals). Teams have to pay the big bucks to get even mediocre pitchers, making these deals much riskier. Even if a team receives the expected production out of a pitcher, they are still more restricted in their financial matters. They are not maximizing the value of their money.
Trades are now the way to acquire a game-changing pitcher. This last year alone has seen Santana, Rich Harden, Dan Haren, and CC Sabathia change teams (and leagues). The Athletics are constant sellers, trading away Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Harden, and Haren over the last several years. The Marlins have seen the departure of Brad Penny and Beckett. The Marlins have won two championships in the last decade, but traded away or did not resign key players in both instances. However, they used prospects acquired in those trades to bolster their farm system. The Athletics don't have the money to keep their dominating pitchers, and have to trade them away to at least bring more than a compensatory draft pick back to the team. However, they do continue to churn out ace-quality pitchers. Depending on the talent evaluation abilities of the teams involved in a trade, things can work out well for either side. Some aces succeed with their new teams, and some don't live up to expectations. Prospects are also hit or miss, but some teams definitely have more success than others.
Which leads me to how this applies to the Mets. You can't buy aces anymore; they have their contracts extended before they even get to smell the salt of the proverbial free agent waters. The pitchers that do take the dip are generally not worth the market price for one reason or another, and likely wouldn't make a significant enough impact anyway. We acquired our difference maker in Santana, but looking towards the future, it is crucial that we hoard our young pitching talent. Quality arms can no longer simply be purchased; it is time we take heed of this trend and react accordingly. My plan to react to this situation is this: small market team talent evaluation while utilizing our large market budget.
Specifically:
1. Improve system-wide talent evaluation abilities. Use the organization's resources to lure away better scouts and front office executives to locate, draft, sign, and trade for the best prospects available.
2. Keep the pitchers we have. Give potential aces a little longer than in past years. Mike Pelfrey is finally starting to blossom, and obviously we didn't wait long enough (or even give a fair chance to) Scott Kazmir. Use our resources to retain players, not obtain them (ostensibly through free agency).
Note: This is a medium to long term plan, really a change in our organizational philosophy. This will not help us win tomorrow; do not think that it will. It would probably mean less trades at the deadline and offseason. However, I do think that it would pay long term dividends. Just imagine if the Athletics got to keep their good pitchers for more than one or two good seasons, or if the Marlins didn't have to resort to fire sales as their response to winning a championship.
Mets Song by Song: Bang Bang by Dispatch
This is the first in a unknown number of articles. In it, I will take one album and try to use all of the song titles to explain the Mets current predicament. The songs will be bolded and italicized.
First up, one of my favorite albums of all time, Bang Bang by Dispatch...
Here We Go. The Mets have been struggling as of late, and will turn to Mike "Bats in the Belfry" Pelfrey to try and pull them out of this four game losing streak. The General idea is to have Pelfrey go out and pitch a dominating game in an effort to save the bullpen.
Recently, the bullpen has been giving up hits, Bang Bang, and have blown a bunch of games as of late. It seems like it is their Mission to all falter at once, as every pitcher seems to be struggling out of the pen.
The Drive of the Mets, the one we saw during the ten game winning streak, seems all but gone. My Two Coins on the situation is that everyone seems to have hit a funk, practically team wide, at the same time. David Wright looks like he's getting pitches right down the Railway and he just can't connect.
It's been a Whirlwind of a season for the Mets so far, and I don't expect that to change any time soon. Out Loud, I am always supporting the team, but inside I can't help but think that they've been hit with too many roadblocks and this season might be in jeopardy.
But for baseball, that's just The Way It Goes.
So what did you think? Is this something you'd like to see more of? Let's see if you could write your own using these songs! Hit the comments!
First up, one of my favorite albums of all time, Bang Bang by Dispatch...
Here We Go. The Mets have been struggling as of late, and will turn to Mike "Bats in the Belfry" Pelfrey to try and pull them out of this four game losing streak. The General idea is to have Pelfrey go out and pitch a dominating game in an effort to save the bullpen.
Recently, the bullpen has been giving up hits, Bang Bang, and have blown a bunch of games as of late. It seems like it is their Mission to all falter at once, as every pitcher seems to be struggling out of the pen.
The Drive of the Mets, the one we saw during the ten game winning streak, seems all but gone. My Two Coins on the situation is that everyone seems to have hit a funk, practically team wide, at the same time. David Wright looks like he's getting pitches right down the Railway and he just can't connect.
It's been a Whirlwind of a season for the Mets so far, and I don't expect that to change any time soon. Out Loud, I am always supporting the team, but inside I can't help but think that they've been hit with too many roadblocks and this season might be in jeopardy.
But for baseball, that's just The Way It Goes.
So what did you think? Is this something you'd like to see more of? Let's see if you could write your own using these songs! Hit the comments!
Early Morning Madness: Trouble brewing edition
Uh-oh. Here come the San Diego Padres, again.
Last time the Mets and Padres tangoed, the Mets were swept out of San Diego. That was part of a five game losing streak, and the next week the manager was fired in the dead of night. They managed only nine runs over four games, losing three straight 2-1 games.
Let's hope they fare slightly better this time around.
Billy Wagner goes for an MRI on his left forearm this morning, but it seems the New York Post has jumped the gun and already destined him for the DL.
This is supposed to be an easy stretch of the schedule the next few weeks for the Mets. Yes, they do match up against the Phillies and the Marlins, but the rest of the games come against the Pirates, Nationals, Braves, Astros, and Padres.
Well, we saw how the team played against the Astros last weekend, and we've seen what they can do against the Padres (if you need a refresher from 15 seconds ago, the Mets were swept by both teams).
To me, it always seem like the Mets play down to their opponents level. Instead of truly beating up on teams that they should trounce, they seem to want to make it interesting and play a close game and/or lose. If the Mets want to contend this season, these are games they need to win.
Last time the Mets and Padres tangoed, the Mets were swept out of San Diego. That was part of a five game losing streak, and the next week the manager was fired in the dead of night. They managed only nine runs over four games, losing three straight 2-1 games.
Let's hope they fare slightly better this time around.
** * **
Billy Wagner goes for an MRI on his left forearm this morning, but it seems the New York Post has jumped the gun and already destined him for the DL.
** * **
This is supposed to be an easy stretch of the schedule the next few weeks for the Mets. Yes, they do match up against the Phillies and the Marlins, but the rest of the games come against the Pirates, Nationals, Braves, Astros, and Padres.
Well, we saw how the team played against the Astros last weekend, and we've seen what they can do against the Padres (if you need a refresher from 15 seconds ago, the Mets were swept by both teams).
To me, it always seem like the Mets play down to their opponents level. Instead of truly beating up on teams that they should trounce, they seem to want to make it interesting and play a close game and/or lose. If the Mets want to contend this season, these are games they need to win.
8/4/08
No Player of the Month for Carlos Delgado
The Mets hottest hitter in July, Carlos Delgado, was not good enough to win the NL Player of the Month for July. Delgado lost out to Milwaukee Brewer Ryan Braun.
From the Miami Herald:
From the Miami Herald:
Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun has been named the National League Player of the Month for July.The right-handed hitter completed the month with nine homers, 23 RBI, six doubles, three triples and a .366 batting average. He posted 10 multi-hit games and on six occasions drove in two or more runs.
---
Other players considered for the honor were Mets outfielder Carlos Delgado (.357, 9 HR, 24 RBI); Cincinnati Reds outfielder Adam Dunn (.310, 12 HR, 26 RBI); Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard (.311, 10 HR, 27 RBI) and Adam LaRoche of the Pirates (.390, 7 HR, 18 RBI).
Maybe next month?
I am not impressed with Fernando Martinez
No, I have not seen Fernando Martinez play...ever. But just looking at his numbers, I am not too convinced this guy is everything he is cracked up to be.
F-Mart is supposedly the Mets blue chip prospect, the best we have, the savior of the farm system. Why? Let's take a look at his statistics through his first three seasons in the minor leagues. Granted, he is only 19 years old and still growing and maturing, but it just doesn't seem he's as groomed as Nick Evans or Daniel Murphy seem to be.
His first season, split between one game at the Rookie level, A, and A+ ball, at the young age of 17, he hit .279/.336/.457/.793 (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS). He hit 10 home runs, drove in 39 runs, and scored 43 times in 76 games. He walked 21 times while striking out in 61 AB's.
Nothing really special there. He played decent in the field, only committing two errors. Again, he was only 17 years old this season.
Moving on to his second season in the minor leagues, where he saw three games at Rookie ball and 60 games in AA Binghamton. Last season he hit .265/.331/.376/.707 while hitting only four home runs. In the 63 combined games, Martinez only drove in 22 runs, while scoring 33 times.
In the field, he committed six errors for a fielding percentage of .975. Not a great season at all. Still, only 18 and seeing a higher level of competition in AA.
Onto this season, where he is 19 years old. Again, Martinez seen time at the Rookie level, playing four games, but he is mainly playing in AA where he has appeared in 61 games. He tore up Rookie ball while he was there, to the tune of .429/.467/.643/1.110 in those four games.
Back at AA, Martinez is hitting .292/.332/.420/.752. Martinez has hit five dingers, driven in 25, and scored 37 times. He has walked only 14 times while striking out in 56 at bats. He's committed two errors in the field this season, both at the Rookie level. At AA, he's sporting a 1.000 fielding percentage.
Let's run under the assumption that an average player should hit .275/.330/.410/.750 or so. In his career, only 204 games due to injuries, F-Mart is hitting .282/.336/.420/.761. He's hit only 19 home runs in his career. He's hit 42 doubles and 10 triples in his short career.
That's not too pretty. That's slightly above average.
Maybe I am missing something on the F-Mart parade. If someone can fill me in on why this kid is supposed to be so good, I'd love to know.
F-Mart is supposedly the Mets blue chip prospect, the best we have, the savior of the farm system. Why? Let's take a look at his statistics through his first three seasons in the minor leagues. Granted, he is only 19 years old and still growing and maturing, but it just doesn't seem he's as groomed as Nick Evans or Daniel Murphy seem to be.
His first season, split between one game at the Rookie level, A, and A+ ball, at the young age of 17, he hit .279/.336/.457/.793 (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS). He hit 10 home runs, drove in 39 runs, and scored 43 times in 76 games. He walked 21 times while striking out in 61 AB's.
Nothing really special there. He played decent in the field, only committing two errors. Again, he was only 17 years old this season.
Moving on to his second season in the minor leagues, where he saw three games at Rookie ball and 60 games in AA Binghamton. Last season he hit .265/.331/.376/.707 while hitting only four home runs. In the 63 combined games, Martinez only drove in 22 runs, while scoring 33 times.
In the field, he committed six errors for a fielding percentage of .975. Not a great season at all. Still, only 18 and seeing a higher level of competition in AA.
Onto this season, where he is 19 years old. Again, Martinez seen time at the Rookie level, playing four games, but he is mainly playing in AA where he has appeared in 61 games. He tore up Rookie ball while he was there, to the tune of .429/.467/.643/1.110 in those four games.
Back at AA, Martinez is hitting .292/.332/.420/.752. Martinez has hit five dingers, driven in 25, and scored 37 times. He has walked only 14 times while striking out in 56 at bats. He's committed two errors in the field this season, both at the Rookie level. At AA, he's sporting a 1.000 fielding percentage.
Let's run under the assumption that an average player should hit .275/.330/.410/.750 or so. In his career, only 204 games due to injuries, F-Mart is hitting .282/.336/.420/.761. He's hit only 19 home runs in his career. He's hit 42 doubles and 10 triples in his short career.
That's not too pretty. That's slightly above average.
Maybe I am missing something on the F-Mart parade. If someone can fill me in on why this kid is supposed to be so good, I'd love to know.
Why is Ryan Church with the team?
I understand that Ryan Church wants to be with his teammates, with his friends, as they move through the season. But Church is still coming back from migraines and a concussion.
He's taking unnecessary plane flights around the country and the Mets don't seem ready to have him start his rehab assignment any time soon. He's been diagnosed with migraines and cleared to start playing baseball again, but so far he's only taken batting practice and done some throwing.
Two scenarios could be in place here: In one, the Mets are feeding the media bad information on Church, who might not actually be ready to play. Could be just a ploy to keep fans waiting and not screaming for a trade or promotion in his absence. The other could be that they just don't want anything to backfire and they're taking this time around extra careful.
For the sake of the organization, I hope it's the latter, but every time he travels with the team and isn't heading to Port St. Lucie to work out and rehab, I get a little bit more suspicious.
Church was supposed to stay in Florida after the Marlins series, go to the Mets facilities and begin working out on his path back to the Mets. Those plans were scrapped and he traveled to Houston with the team.
After Houston, I figured he would go back to Florida and start. Now Church is coming all the way back to New York. Why? I don't know.
The Mets need Church to get right, and if they keep dragging him all across the country and blocking him from starting his rehab assignment, I don't know what they're thinking.
He's taking unnecessary plane flights around the country and the Mets don't seem ready to have him start his rehab assignment any time soon. He's been diagnosed with migraines and cleared to start playing baseball again, but so far he's only taken batting practice and done some throwing.
Two scenarios could be in place here: In one, the Mets are feeding the media bad information on Church, who might not actually be ready to play. Could be just a ploy to keep fans waiting and not screaming for a trade or promotion in his absence. The other could be that they just don't want anything to backfire and they're taking this time around extra careful.
For the sake of the organization, I hope it's the latter, but every time he travels with the team and isn't heading to Port St. Lucie to work out and rehab, I get a little bit more suspicious.
Church was supposed to stay in Florida after the Marlins series, go to the Mets facilities and begin working out on his path back to the Mets. Those plans were scrapped and he traveled to Houston with the team.
After Houston, I figured he would go back to Florida and start. Now Church is coming all the way back to New York. Why? I don't know.
The Mets need Church to get right, and if they keep dragging him all across the country and blocking him from starting his rehab assignment, I don't know what they're thinking.
Early Morning Madness: Lifeless edition
Flat. Dead fish. No oomph. Nada. Zip. Zilch.
This team looks dead. It has no spark, no fight. What we saw nearly three weeks ago, the 10 game winning streak, feels like it happened months ago. Such an abrupt fall from grace. After battling back strong, getting within a few games and finally taking over sole possession of first place, the Mets have fallen back to reality, hard.
A 1-5 road trip, one marked by bullpen disaster after bullpen disaster, was not easy to swallow. Almost every game, it seemed the Mets had a chance. Even Sunday's game, where they had men on base and threatening nearly every inning, but failed to push across any runs.
This team needs a spark. Maybe the youth infusion could do it. I'd love to see Jerry Manuel pull out all the stops and stock the lineup full of these young guns. Throw Nick Evans in left, Daniel Murphy at first. Argenis Reyes can man second base. Eddie Kunz can close. While we're at it...have Jon Niese start and Fernando Martinez in right (or left, and move Evans. It doesn't matter).
I like the way the team is moving. Instead of promoting the old guys hanging around at AAA, it's moving towards getting younger and healthier. There will be a bit of a learning curve, there is no doubt about that. But these kid are young and fresh and ready to go. If they're chomping at the bit, let them run.
This team looks dead. It has no spark, no fight. What we saw nearly three weeks ago, the 10 game winning streak, feels like it happened months ago. Such an abrupt fall from grace. After battling back strong, getting within a few games and finally taking over sole possession of first place, the Mets have fallen back to reality, hard.
A 1-5 road trip, one marked by bullpen disaster after bullpen disaster, was not easy to swallow. Almost every game, it seemed the Mets had a chance. Even Sunday's game, where they had men on base and threatening nearly every inning, but failed to push across any runs.
This team needs a spark. Maybe the youth infusion could do it. I'd love to see Jerry Manuel pull out all the stops and stock the lineup full of these young guns. Throw Nick Evans in left, Daniel Murphy at first. Argenis Reyes can man second base. Eddie Kunz can close. While we're at it...have Jon Niese start and Fernando Martinez in right (or left, and move Evans. It doesn't matter).
I like the way the team is moving. Instead of promoting the old guys hanging around at AAA, it's moving towards getting younger and healthier. There will be a bit of a learning curve, there is no doubt about that. But these kid are young and fresh and ready to go. If they're chomping at the bit, let them run.
8/3/08
TSTDIA: Astros 4 -- Mets 0
More offensive wasted opportunities. Another loss. A sweep at the hands of the Astros. A 1-5 road trip. Mets could be three games out of first by the end of tonight.
What else is there to say?
What else is there to say?
Not good news: John Maine to DL, Billy Wagner injured
Doom and gloom from Adam Rubin:
The Mets need a run of a few wins here before things get worse.
Rubin also notes that Eddie Kunz could close today if needed.
John Maine is going to the DL. Jerry Manuel said he didn’t have a setback, but could use more time. The Mets needed an extra bullpen arm anyway because Billy Wagner is injured and unavailable. Wagner has a stiff forearm and will be examined in New York.Looks like the wheels are coming off this season in a hurry. Injuries are starting to pile up and the offense has started to look flat.
The Mets need a run of a few wins here before things get worse.
Rubin also notes that Eddie Kunz could close today if needed.
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